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allbet欧博真人客户端(www.aLLbet8.vip):Oil markets brace for volatility as Russian supply bans loom

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WHILE crude oil markets have been mostly steady of late amid conflicting signals over China’s demand requirements and geopolitical supply risks, the impending ban on Russian seaborne crude imports has the potential to reignite volatility.

The G7 and the EU are finalizing details of a price cap that is intended to be implemented with the EU ban on seaborne Russian crude imports Dec. 5 and Russian oil products Feb. 5, 2023, which would prohibit insurers and insurance brokers in EU and G7 countries from providing services to oil buyers in other countries purchasing Russian oil above a specified price level.

These compliant countries have around a 90% share of the services worldwide.

An ongoing military escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war continues to risk tighter US and European sanctions, including the possibility of secondary sanctions.

“By early 2023, we will see less Russian export of crude oil and refined products of some 1 million b/d combined, leading to a reduction of Russian oil supply by 1.5 million b/d from pre-war levels,” said Kang Wu, head of global demand and Asia Analytics at S&P Global, with the shortfall to be countered by supply increases elsewhere and moderated demand growth.

Russia is the second-largest crude supplier to China, supplying 1.74 million b/d over the first ten months of 2022 to account for about 17.4% of the top Asian consumer’s crude imports, China’s customs data showed.

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On the demand side, some view China as a wild card, with its oil demand growth offering the possibility of huge swings and a lot hinging on how well the reopening of its economy and easing of pandemic-related curbs goes.

Earlier this month, China reduced it quarantine requirement time for international travelers by two days, while still adhering to its zero-COVID policy.

“We expect China’s demand oil demand to rebound by 520,000 b/d in 2023 after a decline of over 300,000 b/d this year. As a result, global demand is forecast to grow by 2 million b/d in 2023, reaching 102.5 million b/d,” Wu noted.

A real demand recovery will most likely happen in March, after Lunar New Year celebrations are over and political reshuffling at the National People’s Congress is completed, some sources said.

Meanwhile, India’s unwavering appetite for Russian crude lifted its October inflows to multiyear highs.

From a market share of less than 1% in India's import basket before the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's share of India's imports rose to 4.24 million mt, or nearly 1 million b/d, in October, taking a 21% share, comparable to that of Iraq and higher than Saudi Arabia's share of around 15%, S&P Global data showed.

Over January-October, India’s demand for oil products rose 8.8% to 180.75 million mt, or 4.7 million b/d, according to the country’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data, reflecting improved economic activity after quelling a third wave of COVID-19.

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